软件将蚕食1.2万亿美元的服装业

Expanding on Mark Andreessen’s observation that “software is eating the world,” Asymco’s Horace Dediu took a close look Thursday at the industry he believes is next: Apparel.

硅谷著名投资人马克o安德森曾经敏锐地指出，“应用软件正在蚕食世界”。上周四，研究公司Asymco的分析师霍雷斯o德迪欧进一步论述了这种观点。在仔细观察了该产业之后，他得出结论：服装业将成为下一个被蚕食的行业。

Already, he writes,

他写道：

Software has ‘eaten’ large portions of entertainment (e.g. Pixar, iTunes, video games), telecommunications (iPhone, Android, Messaging), various professions including journalism, management and law, and is entering transportation, energy and health care and poised over banking, finance and government.”

“应用软件已经“蚕食”了相当份额的娱乐业【比如皮克斯动画工作室（Pixar）、iTunes、电子游戏】、通讯业（iPhone、安卓、短消息）以及包括新闻、管理和法律在内的其他许多行业。它们正在进入交通运输、能源和卫生保健领域，并做好了进攻银行、金融和政府部门的准备。”

Apparel, he believes, is a $1.2 trillion industry ripe for disruption.

德迪欧认为，规模高达1.2万亿美元的服装业已经到了分崩离析的时候了。

This amount of money is not spent only to protect the wearer from the elements — any more than the money spent on telecommunications is spent to convey vital information. Most of the value in apparel, perhaps 80%, is spent on solving psychological needs.

人们花钱买衣服不仅是为了抵御自然环境的影响，就像付通讯费不仅是为了传达重要信息一样。人们在服装上花的大部分钱、也许有80%，是为了满足自己的心理需求。

“And therein lies the opportunity. As the value is beyond functional, substitution of psychological jobs by new products is a matter of engineering better solutions. Consider the behavior of US teens: anecdotally, their spending on apparel is fadingas the solution to feeling good about themselves increasingly relies on a device and service. Already, in this context, apparel retail is in crisis while buying shifts to devices.”

“这其中蕴藏着机遇。既然服装的价值远非其功能性，那么我们完全可以用更好的解决方案来替代新产品在心理层面的作用。看看美国青少年的行为：举个例子，随着他们越来越依靠电子设备和服务来获取良好的自我感觉，他们在服装上的花费正变得越来越少。而在这样的背景下，随着购买力向电子设备倾斜，服装零售业就会陷入危机。”

“To know who’s already planning for this,” he concludes with a sly reference to Apple, “you can follow the trade news on the hiring of talent.”

“那么谁正在为这一趋势厉兵秣马呢？”在最后，他隐晦地点出了苹果公司：“你可以看看业内的招聘消息。”