西方对自身社会制度的未来失去信心

What defines the west? American and European politicians like to talk about values and institutions. But for billions of people around the world, the crucial point is simpler and easier to grasp. The west is the part of the world where even ordinary people live comfortably. That is the dream that makes illegal immigrants risk their lives, trying to get into Europe or the US.

西方的定义是什么？欧美政客们喜欢谈论价值观和制度。但对世界各地的几十亿人而言，西方这个词语中的关键点更简单、更易理解。西方就是连普通人都能舒舒服服生活的地方。正是怀着这份梦想，非法移民才会冒着生命危险前往欧洲或美国。

Yet, even though the lure of the west remains intense, the western world itself is losing faith in its future. Last week Barack Obama gave one of the bleakest speeches of his presidency. In unsparing terms, the US president chronicled the increasing inequality and declining social mobility that, he says, “pose a fundamental threat to the American dream, our way of life and what we stand for around the world”.

不过，虽然西方的吸引力依然巨大，但西方世界却对自己的未来失去了信心。上周，巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)发表了其总统任期内最悲观的一场讲话。美国总统以尖锐的言辞阐述了不平等加剧和社会流动性下降等问题，他认为这些问题“对美国梦、美国人的生活方式和美国在世界上代表的意义构成了根本威胁”。

A Pew Research Center opinion survey, conducted in 39 countries this spring, asked: “Will children in your country be better off than their parents?” Only 33 per cent of Americans believed their children would live better, while 62 per cent said they would live worse. Europeans were even gloomier. Just 28 per cent of Germans, 17 per cent of Brits, 14 per cent of Italians and 9 per cent of French thought their children would be better off than previous generations. This western pessimism contrasts strongly with optimism in the developing world: 82 per cent of Chinese, 59 per cent of Indians and 65 per cent of Nigerians believe in a more prosperous future.

皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)今年春天在39国进行了一项民意调查——“你们国家的孩子们是否将比父母们生活得更好？”只有33%的美国人相信孩子们能过得更好，而62%的人表示孩子们的生活将不如父辈。欧洲人更悲观。只有28%的德国人、17%的英国人、14%的意大利人和9%的法国人认为他们的子女会过得比前几代好。西方的悲观与发展中世界的乐观形成鲜明对比：82%的中国人、59%的印度人和65%的尼日利亚人相信未来将更加繁荣。

It would be nice to believe that talk of a decline in western living standards is simply hype. But, unfortunately, the numbers suggest that the public are on to something. According to researchers at the Brookings Institution, the wages of working-age men in the US – adjusted for inflation – have fallen by 19 per cent since 1970. Joe Average – once the epitome of the American dream – has fallen back, even as gains for the top 5 per cent of incomes have soared. Even conservative politicians are worried. Senator Marco Rubio, a contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, points out that his parents were able to “make it into the middle class” from relatively humble jobs, as a bartender and a maid. These days, he acknowledges, that would no longer be possible.

西方生活水平下降的说法只是夸大其辞？若是能这么想该多好。但不幸的是，数据表明公众的悲观是有道理的。布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的研究人员发现，剔除通胀因素，美国劳动适龄男性人口的工资自1970年来下降了19%。收入最高的5%人群还在大举积攒财富，但一度作为美国梦化身的普通大众却经受了倒退。就连保守派政治家也为此担忧。2016年共和党总统选举候选人的竞争者、参议员马可•鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)指出，他的父母一辈可以从酒吧侍者和女仆这样相对卑微的工作起步，“迈入中产阶级”。但他承认，这在现在是不可能的。

The sense of gloom and insecurity in Europe is also grounded in reality – in particular the knowledge that welfare and retirement benefits are likely to be less generous in future. The pressure on prosperity is most intense in countries that have suffered worst in the debt-crisis – places such as Greece and Portugal have seen actual cuts in wages and pensions.

欧洲的悲观和不安感同样源于现实——特别是人们认识到，未来的福利和退休金将没那么丰厚。在受债务危机影响最严重的国家，阻碍繁荣的压力最大——希腊和葡萄牙等地已经削减了工资和退休金。

But living standards are even under pressure in European countries that have done relatively well. Research by the Financial Times has shown that Britons born in 1985 are the first cohort for 100 years not to be experiencing better living standards than those born 10 years previously.

但即便是在表现相对不错的欧洲国家，生活水平也在承受压力。英国《金融时报》的研究显示，1985年出生的英国人生活水平没有好于比他们早生10年的人，这是100年来的头一回。

Even in Germany, often lauded as the most successful big economy in the western world, the benefits of the “Merkel miracle” have been felt mainly at the top end of the wage scale. The economic reforms that laid the basis for Germany’s current export boom involved holding down wages, cutting social benefits and employing many more temporary workers.

德国常被誉为西方世界最成功的大型经济体，但在这里，“默克尔奇迹”的受益者主要是该国的高工资人群。为德国当前出口繁荣奠定基础的经济改革措施包括压低工资、削减社会福利和雇佣更多的临时工。

There is a connection between the rising optimism in the developed world and the rising pessimism in the west. In his speech last week, Mr Obama remarked that “starting in the late 1970s, the social contract began to unravel”. Perhaps not coincidentally, it was also in the late 1970s that China began to open up.

发展中世界愈发乐观，西方愈发悲观，二者间存在联系。在上周的讲话中，奥巴马表示“从20世纪70年代末起，社会契约开始瓦解”。也是在70年代末，中国开始对外开放，这或许不是巧合。

Even defenders of globalisation now usually acknowledge that the emergence of a global labour force has helped hold down wages in the west. Some European friends of mine daydream that protectionism – or even a war in Asia – could send more well-paid jobs back to the west. But in reality, globalisation seems unlikely ever really to go into reverse, given the technological, economic and political forces pushing it forwards. It would certainly be morally dubious to attempt to bolster western living standards by undermining an economic trend that has dragged hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in the developing world.

如今，即便是全球化的支持者通常也会承认，全球性劳动力的出现帮助压制了西方的工资。我的一些欧洲朋友们幻想保护主义——或者是亚洲爆发战争——可能导致更多待遇优厚的就业岗位流回西方。但事实上，考虑到推动全球化趋势的技术、经济和政治力量，全球化似乎很难再发生逆转。为图提高西方生活水平而破坏一种使发展中国家数亿人脱贫的经济趋势，在道德上无疑是有问题的。

Even if the western nations did close their markets, western employees – including white-collar workers – would increasingly find that many jobs could be done cheaper by computers or robots. Indeed the march of the robots will also soon pose a threat to assembly-line workers in China.

即使西方国家真的封锁本国市场，西方雇员——包括白领——也会日益发现，计算机或机器人能够以更低的成本完成许多工作。事实上，机器人的发展很快将威胁到中国的流水线工人。

If the erosion of living standards continues, how will western voters react? There are already signs of political radicalisation – with the populist right on the rise in both the US and Europe. But, as yet, there is no real sign that the Tea Party in America or nationalist movements in Europe have a realistic shot at controlling the central government in a large nation. The consensus around globalisation also seems to be holding. Indeed this weekend the World Trade Organisation apparently made a breakthrough in the search for a new global trade deal.

如果生活水平继续下降，西方选民将如何反应？西方已经出现政治激进化的迹象，美国和欧洲的右翼民粹主义势力都在抬头。但目前为止没有确实迹象表明美国茶党(Tea Party)或欧洲民族主义运动真正尝试控制一个大国的中央政府。全球化共识似乎还在延续。上周末，世界贸易组织(WTO)似乎在追求达成全球性贸易协议的过程中取得了突破。

But while new political movements are not yet ready to smash the established parties in the west, mainstream politicians are having to react to the new economic climate. Rising inequality is increasing the pressure for more redistributive taxes and higher minimum wages on both sides of the Atlantic. Another decade of western economic malaise – or, God forbid, another financial crisis – is likely to see more radical solutions and politicians emerging.

虽然西方的新政治运动尚未做好击败成熟党派的准备，但主流政治家必须应对新的经济环境。社会不平等加剧，更加要求大西洋两岸实施收入再分配能力更强的税收政策，并提高最低工资标准。如果西方经济低迷再延续十年，或者是再爆发一场金融危机（但愿不要），可能将出现更加激进的解决对策和政治家。