贝莱德 中国政府可能大举买入黄金

The Chinese state could be behind a surge in gold imports that will see China overtake India as the world’s largest consumer of the metal, according to one of the sector’s most influential investors.

黄金行业最具影响力的投资机构之一指出，中国政府或许是中国黄金进口量大增背后的主要因素。中国将超越印度成为全球最大黄金消费国。

Evy Hambro, chief investment officer of BlackRock’s Natural Resources Equity team, said the investment community had been surprised by the amount of gold flowing into China given its spot as the world’s biggest gold producer.

贝莱德(BlackRock)的自然资源股票(Natural Resources Equity)团队首席投资官韩艾飞(Evy Hambro)表示，投资界对流入中国的黄金数量感到惊讶，因为中国是全球第一大黄金生产国。

“The total amount of gold being consumed in China is a gigantic quantum, and you have to wonder where that gold is going,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times. “Is it going on to wrists, ears and necks or is it going into state reserves?”

韩艾飞在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示：“中国的黄金消费总量是一个巨大的数值，你不能不猜想这么多黄金究竟去了哪里。是变成了人们手腕上、耳垂上以及脖子上佩戴的首饰，还是成为了国家储备？”

The People’s Bank of China has not provided an update on its gold reserves since 2009, when it reported a holding of 1,054 tonnes. But the suspicion among some analysts is that China’s central bank has purchased up to 300 tonnes of gold this year.

中国央行(People’s Bank of China)自2009年以来就未再公布过有关其黄金储备的最新数据，2009年该行持有1054吨黄金。但一些分析师怀疑，中国央行今年买入了多达300吨黄金。

Gold has lost more than a quarter of its value this year, falling from $1,674 a troy ounce to $1,233, and is on course to record its first annual price fall in 13 years. Against a backdrop of persistently low inflation, an improving global economy, surging stock prices and the imminent end of US monetary stimulus, institutional investors have dumped gold.

今年以来黄金价格下跌超过四分之一，从每金衡盎司1674美元降至每金衡盎司1233美元，即将在近13年以来首次出现全年价格下跌。在通胀水平持续偏低、全球经济形势好转、股票价格飙升以及美国货币刺激政策即将告终的背景下，机构投资者纷纷抛出黄金。

Holdings of gold-backed exchange traded funds, one of the most popular methods of gold investment, have fallen by 824 tonnes to 1,939 tonnes in the year to date, according to Barclays. Demand from India has been muted because of government restrictions on gold imports. Indian consumption fell 32 per cent in the third quarter to 148 tonnes, the lowest since early 2009.

实物黄金支持的交易所交易基金(ETF)是投资黄金最流行的方法之一。巴克莱(Barclays)提供的数据显示，这类基金的黄金持有量已从年初的1939吨降至目前的824吨。此外印度的黄金需求也受到抑制，因印度政府出台了限制黄金进口的措施。印度今年第三季度的黄金消费量下降32%，至148吨，为2009年初以来的最低水平。

China does not report on its gold trade. Analysts rely on data from other countries, of which Hong Kong is by far the biggest supplier. Records show exports of gold from Hong Kong to China reached 955 tonnes by the end of October, up from 376 tonnes over the same period in 2012.

中国不提供其黄金贸易数据。分析师依靠其他管辖区的数据来推算中国的黄金进出口规模，其中香港是中国内地遥遥领先的最大黄金供应来源。记录显示，今年1月至10月，香港对中国内地的黄金出口量达到了955吨，远高于2012年同期的376吨。

Including local mine production and recycling of scrapped gold, Macquarie estimates total gold supply into China this year could reach 1,800 tonnes.

若计入中国国内矿企的黄金产量以及废旧黄金回收利用，麦格理(Macquarie)估计中国今年的黄金供应总量可能达到1800吨。

Outside of China, central banks have slowed their purchases of gold this year to 300 tonnes by the end of September.

在中国以外，各国央行今年放缓了黄金购买速度，截至9月底的黄金购入总量仅为300吨。