4.3% December fall in prices of new homes in big Chinese cities 9% Month-on-month rise in Chinese housing sales in December Prices of new homes in big Chinese cities fell 4.3 per cent in December from a year earlier, the largest drop since the current data series began in 2011, according to Financial Times calculations based on government figures released yesterday. The continuing downturn in the Chinese real estate market, which began at the start of last year, is creating ructions in Beijing and globally, as slower growth and rising debts in China ripple through international commodity markets. Property and related sectors account for nearly a quarter of China’s economy and analysts expect the downturn to continue this year, especially since bloated inventories grew throughout last year. “We expect the property downturn to continue in 2015 with greater downside risk to our current forecast,” said Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS. More positively, and in what some developers hope is the start of a turnround, December saw a rebound in housing sales volumes. Moreover, housing prices across China’s largest cities declined by a smaller margin month-on-month than they did in November or September. Beijing cut interest rates in November for the first time in two years and that, combined with looser government regulatory policy, pushed housing sales to their highest level in December, up 9 per cent from a month earlier. Ai Jingwei, a property market expert and author of Great Recession in China’s Property Market, said: “Despite some positive short-term signals, the current property downturn is far from over. “Given the huge inventory overhang, unfavourable demographic trends and the potential for local debt crises I expect the slump will last at least until the end of 2017 and possibly longer, even if we see some small temporary rebounds.” Much of China’s property construction has been funded by credit and there are concerns the slowdown could trigger localised debt crises. Cash-strapped local governments rely on land sales to fund basic services and most have taken on huge debt loads using land and real estate projects as collateral. “Local government finance vehicles” set up by governments across China are supposed to repay Rmb1.4tn in debt maturing this year, according to China Cheng Xin International Credit Rating, which is partly owned by Moody’s, the credit rating agency. Those same local finance vehicles borrowed Rmb1.6tn last year, up from about Rmb900bn each year in 2012 and 2013. China is set to publish its 2014 gross domestic product growth figures tomorrow, with the economy expected to have expanded at its slowest annual rate since 1990. 英国《金融时报》根据中国政府昨日发布的数据进行的计算显示，中国去年12月大城市新房价格同比下降4.3%，这是当前数据系列从2011年开始以来的最大跌幅。 始于去年初的中国房地产市场持续低迷，正在北京乃至全球制造不安，中国增长放缓而债务上升所引发的冲击波震荡国际大宗商品市场。 房地产及相关行业占中国经济近四分之一，分析师们预计，此轮低迷将在今年继续，尤其是因为去年全年期间存量不断膨胀。 “我们预计房地产低迷将在2015年持续，我们目前的预测面临的下行风险更大，”瑞银(UBS)首席中国经济学家汪涛表示。 比较好的消息是，12月住房销售出现反弹，一些开发商希望这是局面扭转的开端。此外，12月中国大城市楼价的月度环比降幅小于11月和9月。 去年11月，中国央行两年来首次降息，而政府调控政策有所放松。这些举措推动住房销售在12月达到最高水平，环比增长9%。 房地产市场专家、《房市大衰退》作者艾经纬表示：“尽管有一些积极的短期信号，但当前的房地产低迷还远未结束。 “鉴于巨大的过剩存量、不利的人口结构发展趋势以及爆发地方债务危机的可能性，我预计此轮低迷将至少持续到2017年末，甚至更久，即便我们看到一些小幅短暂反弹。” 中国房地产建设的很大一部分资金来自信贷，目前有人担忧，楼市放缓可能触发局部的债务危机。 资金紧张的中国地方政府靠卖地收入来维持基本服务，大多数地方政府以土地和房地产项目为抵押，背上了巨大的债务负担。 信用评级机构穆迪(Moody’s)部分持股的中诚信国际信用评级公司(CCXI)称，中国各地政府成立的“地方政府融资工具”今年理应偿还1.4万亿元人民币的到期债务。 这些“融资工具”去年借入1.6万亿元人民币，高于2012年和2013年的每年9000亿元人民币。 中国将在明日发布2014年国内生产总值(GDP)增长数据，预计中国经济将出现自1990年以来最慢的年度增速。
