中国对东南亚渐失吸引力

With Southeast Asian leaders from the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand lining up to pay fealty to Beijing and distance themselves from Washington, their old ally, it is tempting to conclude that US influence in the region is in terminal decline.

看到菲律宾、马来西亚、泰国等东南亚国家领导人排队向北京表忠诚、并疏远他们昔日盟友华盛顿的一幕，人们很容易得出美国在这一地区的影响力正日薄西山的结论。

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte’s declaration of economic and military separation from the US while on a visit to Beijing last month was the most dramatic example of apparent realignment.

菲律宾总统罗德里戈.杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)上月访问北京期间曾宣布与美国在经济和军事上分离，这是东南亚各国表面上重新站队的最戏剧性的一例。

Despite this, the strategic balance of power has barely shifted and is unlikely to do so for the foreseeable future.

尽管如此，亚太地区的实力战略平衡几乎没有发生变化，而且在可预见的未来也不大可能改变。

For all his bluster, Mr Duterte is yet to cancel a single bilateral agreement with the US, and soon after leaving Beijing he toned down his separation pledge.

杜特尔特虽然放出大话，但也尚未终止与美国签署的任何双边协议，而且离开北京后不久，他就淡化了要与美国分离的誓言。

Malaysia and Thailand have conducted military exercises with China in recent years but these symbolic manoeuvres are nothing compared with the deep and longstanding military ties both nations have with America.

虽然近年来马来西亚、泰国与中国进行了军事演习，但与它们同美国深厚而悠久的军事关系相比，这些象征性的演习根本不值一提。

While these countries are clearly cosying up to China in ways that cost them virtually nothing, no one is cutting ties with America.

在以实际上不付出任何代价的方式竭力讨好中国的同时，这些国家没有一个在切断与美国的关系。

Most have privately urged the US to increase rather than decrease its presence.

多数东南亚国家私底下都在敦促美国加强而非减少在该地区的存在。

In fact, as long as Washington remains a staunch proponent of peace and free trade in the region, these countries are even more likely to choose America over China thanks to a crucial economic shift that is under way.

实际上，只要华盛顿仍是亚太地区和平及自由贸易的坚定支持者，这些国家就会更倾向于选择美国，而非中国，因为眼下正在发生一个重要的经济转变。

Until recently, Chinese imports from the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations had increased by an average of more than 20 per cent a year for more than a decade.

直到不久前，中国从东盟(ASEAN) 10国的进口在10多年的时间里一直以年均逾20%的速度增长。

Many assumed this magnetic pull would draw all regional countries into China’s orbit and force them to accommodate Beijing’s wishes.

许多人认为，这种强大的吸引力会把所有东南亚国家拖入中国的轨道，并迫使它们顺从北京方面的意愿。

But that attraction is growing weaker.

但中国的这一吸引力正日益减弱。

China’s imports from Asean grew by just 4.4 per cent in 2014 and last year they fell 6.5 per cent, according to official Chinese statistics.

根据中国官方统计的数字，2014年，中国从东盟的进口仅增长了4.4%，去年则下滑了6.5%。

In the first nine months of this year, imports from Asean fell a further 5.3 per cent.

今年前9个月，中国从东盟的进口又下滑5.3%。

Changes under way in the Chinese economy make clear this is a structural problem for Asean exporters.

中国经济正在发生的变化清楚地表明，这对东盟出口国来说是一个结构性问题。

China’s construction boom is faltering and with it the country’s previously ravenous appetite for raw materials.

中国的建筑热潮正在消退，随之放缓的还有昔日对原材料的旺盛需求。

Meanwhile, the ruling Communist party wants China to abandon its role as the world’s polluted workshop and create a consumption and services economy that relies far less on the inputs — such as rubber from Malaysia and computer chips from Singapore — supplied by its neighbours.

与此同时，执政的共产党希望中国摆脱饱受污染的世界工厂角色，打造一个更少依赖从邻国进口投入品（如马来西亚的橡胶、新加坡的计算机芯片）的消费和服务型经济。

As a result, Southeast Asian economies are less dependent on China than just a couple of years ago and China has gone from being the primary source of external demand to the primary source of volatility.

结果是，东南亚经济体相比几年前已不再那么依赖中国，而中国已经从它们外部需求的主要来源变成了经济波动的祸首。

Chinese investment in Asean and beyond will continue to grow in the long term but for now the ambitions of investors,

长远来看，中国对东盟及其他地区的投资将继续增长，但眼下，中国投资者，如新成立的、政府支持的亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB，简称亚投行），野心还不是很大。

such as China’s nascent state-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, are modest, amounting in AIIB’s case to barely $10bn globally by 2018.

以亚投行为例，到2018年，其在全球的投资也将仅为100亿美元。

Apart from in tiny client states such as Cambodia and Laos, China’s investment presence in Asean is still dwarfed by that of Japan, the US and other western countries.

除了柬埔寨、老挝等依赖中国的小国外，中国在东盟的投资与日本、美国及其他西方国家比起来仍相形见绌。

In the near future, tightening Chinese capital controls and a devaluing renminbi will curb outbound investment.

在不久的将来，中国日益收紧的资本管制及人民币贬值将抑制对外投资。

Without its previous magnetic economic attraction, China has little to offer its neighbours besides tourists and threats.

没有了昔日经济上的巨大吸引力，中国很少还能为其邻国提供什么——除了游客与威胁。

The US, on the other hand, not only remains far ahead of China in terms of military capability but also has big regional reserves of goodwill and soft power.

另一方面，美国不仅在军事实力上仍遥遥领先中国，而且在东南亚民众中也拥有巨大的好感和软实力。

Just one example: Filipinos hold a more favourable opinion of the US, at 92 per cent, than even Americans themselves, according to the Pew Research Center.

仅举一例：根据皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的数据，92%的菲律宾人对美国持有好感，甚至超过了美国人的这一比例。

A separate opinion poll found 76 per cent of Filipinos trusted the US very much, compared with only 22 per cent who said the same about China.

另一项民调发现，76%的菲律宾人非常信任美国，相比之下，只有22%的受访者对中国表示信任。

Meanwhile, many countries in the region are quietly hedging against a more belligerent China.

与此同时，许多东南亚国家正在悄悄地对更具挑衅性的中国进行防范。

Just this week, Indonesia’s defence minister said his country had asked Australia to conduct joint naval patrols in the South China Sea.

就在本周，印度尼西亚国防部长表示，该国已邀请澳大利亚在南中国海进行联合海上巡逻。

China lays claim to almost the entire sea, despite overlapping claims from several neighbours.

尽管与多个邻国存在重叠的主权声索，中国仍宣称对几乎整个南中国海拥有主权。

The perception of a triumphant China imposing its will on Asean at the expense of America is clearly premature if not totally misguided.

有人认为高奏凯歌的中国正在取代美国将自己的意志强加给东盟，这种看法明显不成熟——如果不是完全错误的话。

But whoever is elected next week in the US must quickly make clear that America has no intention of abandoning its allies in the region.

但无论下周谁当选美国总统，都必须迅速澄清，美国无意放弃东南亚的盟友。

They must also understand the opportunity presented by China’s fading economic attraction.

他们还必须明白中国经济吸引力渐失带来的机遇。