时事新闻:中国政府会为“十一”救股市？

【英文原文】

It is the very definition of historical irony. Preparing to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Communist Party won't want a plunging stock market to mar the festivities.

This is the latest thinking among traders, who are trying to rationalize an end to the slide in Chinese stocks. It highlights the Shanghai market's defining characteristic: Successful investing there is achieved by sniffing the winds from Beijing.

The selloff - which has the Shanghai Composite down 17% from its Aug. 4 high - is credited to fear that Beijing will begin to tame its massive rate of bank loan expansion.

This isn't about the economic impact of such a move. The selling has come alongside upgrades by many economists on expectations for China's growth.

Rather it's a question of what impact that lending has had on lifting prices. Some 20% of the $1.1 trillion Chinese banks lent in the first half of the year are estimated to have flowed into stock and property markets.

Beijing has a number of tools at its disposal to turn sentiment around. Quickening the pace of new mutual funds launches will create more avenues for individual Chinese to route their savings into stocks, for example.

Slashing the stamp duty - the tax charged on stock trading - would be another clear signal that policy makers are looking to turn things around.

This won't be just about face saving. China's robust pipeline of initial public offerings, many by state run companies, requires a healthy market.

The government's also looking to launch a new small companies exchange. More recently, plans for major multinationals, such as HSBC, to float in China have emerged. There's also longer-running ambitions to launch stock-futures and margin trading that require a high degree of investor interest.

Still, the Oct. 1 anniversary of the founding of the PRC features high on the list of motives for Beijing to step in if the selling continues.

It doesn't guarantee success, though. In 2008, a similar expectation was framed around the summer Olympics. By the time the games began, the Shanghai composite was down 58% from the start of the year.

But then, the Olympics were only games. Chinese state birthday parties are much more serious.

【中文译文】

中国政府正在为建国60周年庆典进行紧张筹备，他们不希望股市大幅下挫影响到庆典活动。

这是股市交易员间新近流传的想法，他们试图为中国股市结束下挫找到一个合理理由。这折射出了中国股市的一个重要特征：若要成功投资中国股市，就必须把握来自北京的风吹草动。

上证综合指数已经自8月4日高点下挫了17%，市场将目前这波跌势归咎于投资者担心中国政府会开始放缓银行巨额放贷增长步伐。

市场并不是担心中国政府此举对经济造成的影响。在股市下跌的同时，很多经济学家上调了对中国经济增长的预期。

市场担心的是放缓信贷增长举措会对资产价格上涨造成什么影响。今年上半年中国银行业新增贷款1.1万亿美元，据估计其中20%的资金都流入了股市和房市。

中国政府有诸多政策选择可以来扭转股市人气。举例来说，加快推出新的共同基金，给中国散户投资者带来更多渠道，将他们的积蓄投资到股市当中。

此外，中国政府还可以下调印花税，这是另外一个决策者寻求扭转局面的明确信号。

这并不只是为了保全面子。中国还有大量等待发行的首次公开募股(IPO)交易，很多都来自于国有公司，这需要一个稳定健康的股市。

中国政府还希望推出一个创业板市场。近期还出现了引进汇丰控股(HSBC)等主要跨国公司到中国股市上市的计划。中国政府还有着推出股指期货以及融资融券交易的较长期计划，这需要吸引更多投资者的兴趣。

不过，如果股市持续下跌导致中国政府介入干预的话，最主要的动机可能还是确保稳定以迎接建国60周年庆典。

不过，这不一定会获得成功。去年奥运会之前中国股市也曾有过类似的预期。但等奥运会开幕的时候，上证综合指数已经较年初时下滑了58%。

不过，奥运会毕竟只是场赛事。中国的建国庆典可能具有更为重要的意义。