垄断大国应该避免对俄制裁恶性循环

Call me Finlandised but there must be a better way than sanctions. Russia and the west are competing over who can hurt the other the most. This is no way to resolve a crisis.

你可以叫我“芬兰化”分子，但肯定有比制裁更好的方式。俄罗斯和西方正在比拼谁能最大限度地伤害对方。这种做法不可能解决一场危机。

President Barack Obama says that sanctions are having an effect. Yes, they are. They are increasing popular support for Vladimir Putin. They are driving an ideological, political and cultural wedge between Russia and the west. While they hurt the Russian president’s close advisers, they also hurt Norwegian fishermen, Italian cheese makers, Finnish dairy companies, German technology companies and global energy companies. They drain hope from the European economy.

美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)宣称制裁正在发挥作用。是的，的确起了作用。制裁提高了大众对弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)的支持。制裁在俄罗斯和西方之间划下了意识形态、政治和文化的鸿沟。制裁打击了俄罗斯总统的亲近顾问，但同时也损害了挪威渔民、意大利奶酪制造商、芬兰奶制品企业、德国科技企业和全球能源企业的利益。制裁抽干了欧洲经济的希望。

But are they helping the situation in eastern Ukraine? No, they are not.

但这些制裁是否改善了乌克兰东部的局势？不，没有。

Sanctions might work as a part of a proper strategy. At the moment, they are a substitute for policy. We need a cool-headed policy to deal with an assertive Russia. Do not get me wrong. If we do not respect human rights and the rule of law we are at the mercy of the powerful. If states do not respect the norms they have sanctified in international treaties, we turn the clock back to another century. Principles are dangerous only when they are not restrained by common sense.

制裁可能作为一套合理战略的一部分发挥作用。但眼下，制裁成为了政策的替代物。我们需要冷静的政策来应对强势的俄罗斯。不要弄错了我的意思。如果我们不尊重人权和法治，我们就只能任由强者摆布。如果国家不遵守它们写入国际条约中的规则，我们就倒退到了上一个世纪。只有当原则不被常识约束时，它们才是危险的。

Remember the story about a drunken fight over a principle? Two men order drinks; one of them takes the change. “Hey, that’s my money,” says the other. “No, it’s mine,” the first retorts. “Are you calling me a liar?” Ugliness ensues; the police are called. “Did you get into a fight over 50 cents?” asks the officer as the two men are whisked away. “No, it was over a principle.”

还记得醉鬼因为原则而打架的故事吗？两个男子点了酒水；其中一人拿走了找零。“喂，那是我的钱，”另一个人说。“不，是我的钱，”第一个人反驳。“你是在说我是骗子么？”事情变得丑陋起来；警察被叫来了。“你们为了50美分打架？”警官在带走两名男子时询问。“不，是为了原则。”

I am not suggesting that Crimea is small change (although Vyacheslav Molotov called Finland “small potatoes” during the postwar peace negotiations). I am suggesting that in a democracy, foreign policy requires a balance between realism and idealism. Realism without idealism leads to cynicism. Idealism without realism leads to a bloody nose.

我不是在暗示克里米亚是“找零”（尽管维亚切斯拉夫•莫洛托夫(Vyacheslav Molotov)在战后和平协商时的确把芬兰叫做“小角色”）。我的意思是，在民主国家，外交政策需要在现实主义和理想主义之间达成平衡。没有理想主义的现实主义会导致愤世嫉俗。没有现实主义的理想主义会遭遇迎头痛击。

The lessons of Finland’s experience of dealing with Russia can be summed up in two sentences. First, do not be naive. Second, do not be stupid. Great powers are good at changing their policies unexpectedly and Russia is no exception. One day they are friends, the next they are selling you down the river. Remember the Treaty of Tilsit? It led to Russia robbing Finland from Sweden with Napoleon’s consent. Remember the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact? It lead to Josef Stalin taking over the Baltic states and trying (but failing) to take over Finland. Remember Yalta? Well, everyone remembers Yalta.

芬兰应对俄罗斯的经验教训可以总结成两句话。首先，别天真。其次，别犯蠢。大国擅于出其不意地改变政策，俄罗斯也不例外。今天他们和你是朋友，明天就会出卖你。还记得《提尔西特条约》(Treaty of Tilsit)吗？该条约使俄罗斯得到拿破仑的许可，从瑞典手中夺取了芬兰。还记得《苏德互不侵犯条约》(Molotov-Ribbentrop pact)吗？该条约使约瑟夫•斯大林(Josef Stalin)控制了波罗的海国家并试图（虽然失败了）控制芬兰。还记得雅尔塔(Yalta)吗？好吧，每个人都记得雅尔塔。

How can we stop the downward spiral of sanctions? Two things need to be done. First, there should be a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia, combining an agreement on borders with a commitment from Kiev to uphold the rights of Russian speakers, and a commitment from Moscow to stop supporting the rebels in eastern Ukraine. This offers both sides a face-saving way out. Second, Russia and the west should reconfirm their commitment to the so-called Helsinki principles: respect of territorial integrity and human rights. The Helsinki Accords will turn 40 next summer. This would be a good time to renew these vows. If Moscow chooses this course, the west should begin to dismantle the sanctions.

我们怎么才能阻止制裁的恶性循环呢？需要做两件事。首先，需要在乌克兰和俄罗斯之间缔结和平条约，并在两国间达成边境协定，基辅方面要承诺维护说俄语人群的权利，而莫斯科方面要许诺不再支持乌克兰东部的反叛分子。这给双方提供了一个留存颜面的出路。第二，俄罗斯和西方应该再度确认对遵守“赫尔辛基原则”(Helsinki principles)的承诺：尊重领土完整和人权。明年夏天，《赫尔辛基协议》(Helsinki Accords)就签署40年了。这是一个更新誓言的好时机。如果莫斯科选择采取这样的行动，西方就应该开始取消制裁。

It sounds idealistic, and perhaps it is. Just in case, Finland and Sweden should join Nato in due course. Moscow might complain that the western sphere of influence was again expanding. But these two countries are already part of the west. Their membership in Nato would benefit Russia: it would bring in two pragmatic countries who want to make Russia and Nato partners again. As surprising as it may sound these days, it is possible to balance idealism and pragmatism in a constructive way.

这听上去很理想化，事实上可能也是如此。以防万一，芬兰和瑞典应该在适当的时候加入北约(Nato)。莫斯科或许会抱怨西方的势力范围又扩张了。但这两个国家已经是西方的一部分了。它们加入北约会使俄罗斯受益：引入两个信奉实用主义、希望俄罗斯和北约重归于好的国家。眼下这听上去或许让人惊讶，但以一种建设性的方式平衡理想主义和实用主义是可能的。

The writer is secretary-general of the Northern Light, a European business leaders’ convention based in Helsinki

作者是赫尔辛基欧洲商界领袖大会“Northern Light”的秘书长