多重危机令欧盟不堪重负 The crises that threaten to unravel the EU

There is a comforting cliché in Brussels that the EU needs crises in order to progress. But the current cocktail of problems facing Europe — refugees, the euro and the danger that Britain might leave the union look far more likely to overwhelm the EU than to strengthen it.

布鲁塞尔的政客们经常这样自我安慰：欧盟需要危机才能进步。但欧洲当前面临的一系列问题——难民、欧元以及英国可能退出的危险——看起来更有可能压垮、而非加强欧盟。

For the first time in decades, some of the fundamental achievements and tenets of the EU are under threat. These include the single currency, open borders, free movement of labour and the notion that membership is forever.

欧盟的一些根本成就和原则几十年来首次受到威胁，包括单一货币、开放边界、劳动力自由迁徙以及永久成员国资格的观念。

Rather than rising to these challenges, the EU is creaking under the strain. Its 28 members are arguing bitterly and seem incapable of framing effective responses to their common problems.

欧盟没有奋起应对这些挑战，而是在压力下出现裂缝。欧盟28个成员国间的争论很激烈，似乎不能针对他们的共同问题拟定有效回应。

These arguments are also taking place against an ominous backdrop. Large parts of the EU remain sunk in a semi-depression with high unemployment and unsustainable public finances. The problems of an imploding Middle East are crowding in on Europe, in the form of hundreds of thousands of refugees. And the political fringes are on the rise — with the latest evidence being the election of a far-left eurosceptic candidate to lead Britain’s Labour party.

这些争论发生在一个不祥的大背景下。欧盟大片地区仍处于高失业率以及公共财政不可持续的半衰退状态。中东内爆带来的问题正在扑向欧洲，其形式就是数十万难民。而政治极端势力正在崛起——持欧洲怀疑论的极左翼候选人当选英国工党新领袖就是最新的证据。

With a sense of crisis mounting and the EU unable to respond, countries will be increasingly inclined to act unilaterally or even — in the case of Britain — leave the bloc altogether.

由于感到危机愈演愈烈而欧盟无力应对，各成员国将越来越倾向于采取单边行动，甚至（就英国而言）彻底脱离欧盟。

The refugee crisis is already threatening cherished ideas about open borders. In the past couple of days, Germany has reimposed frontier controls with Austria — which, in turn, has imposed controls at its border with Hungary, which itself is working feverishly to complete a barbed-wire fence to protect its frontier with non-EU Serbia. Controls have been tightened on the French-Italian borders, while migrants camp miserably in Calais, hoping to cross to England.

难民危机已经威胁到关于开放边界的受到珍视的理念。近日，德国重新启动了与奥地利之间的边境管控；奥地利进而加强了与匈牙利之间的边境管控，而匈牙利正在全力构筑一道铁丝网围墙，以保护本国与非欧盟的塞尔维亚之间的边界。法国-意大利边境的管控已经收紧，同时一些移民在法国加来（Calais，法国北部港口城市——译者注）安营扎寨，希望能穿越海峡到英格兰。

If the EU somehow gets a grip on the migrant crisis, these measures might be no more than temporary expedients. But if the pressure of would-be refugees heading for Europe remains intense, then temporary measures could harden into permanent controls.

如果欧盟设法控制住了这场移民危机，那么这些措施或许只是权宜之计。但如果涌向欧洲的准难民带来的压力不减，那么这些临时措施可能固化，变成永久性管控。

Question marks over open borders will easily shade into wider issues about access to welfare systems and labour markets. That is because EU countries are realising that — in a border-free single market — a unilateral change of asylum rules by Germany had implications for the immigration policies of all member states. Once migrants get citizenship in one EU country, they have the right to move to any other, to work there and to claim benefits. But if free movement of people and labour come into question, so does the EU’s single market — its central achievement.

开放边界问题很容易扩展为涉及福利制度与劳动力市场的更广泛议题。这是因为欧盟各国意识到，在开放边界的单一市场中，德国单方面改变庇护规则，会对所有成员国的移民政策造成影响。一旦移民在一个欧盟国家获得公民身份，他们就有权利迁移至其他任何欧盟国家，在那里工作和申请福利。但如果人员和劳动力的自由流动成了问题，那么单一市场这个欧盟核心成就也将面对问号。

The refugee issue has, for the moment, overshadowed the euro. But the problems of the single currency have not gone away. On the contrary, Greece’s decision this summer to knuckle under and accept yet another austerity package has made the eurozone look increasingly like a trap.

眼下，难民问题盖过了欧元。但单一货币的问题并未消失。相反，希腊今年夏天屈膝接受又一套紧缩方案的决定，让欧元区看起来越来越像一个陷阱。

Even Greece, which is profoundly unhappy with life in the eurozone, cannot risk leaving for fear of provoking a financial and economic crisis. Creditor countries such as Germany and the Netherlands are not much happier, as they fear they are being dragged into a system of permanent fiscal transfers towards the nations of southern Europe. Meanwhile, efforts to make the euro work better, by pressing ahead with a banking union, are stuck in Brussels. This does not look like a sustainable situation and the risk of euro break-up will surely return.

即便是对欧元区成员国身份极为不开心的希腊，出于对引发金融和经济危机的担忧，也不敢冒险脱离欧元区。德国、荷兰等债权国也不是特别开心，因为他们担心自己正被拖入一个向南欧国家进行财政转移的永久性制度。与此同时，推动建立银行业联盟、使欧元更好发挥作用的努力在布鲁塞尔受阻。这看起来不像一种可持续局面，欧元区解体的风险肯定会卷土重来。

The refugee and euro crises bear on whether Britain will vote to stay in the EU, when it holds a referendum in 2016 or 2017. Until recently, the opinion polls looked promising for the pro-EU camp. But the migrant crisis plays directly into the most potent issue deployed by those campaigning for Britain to leave — which is that membership of the EU means that the UK cannot control immigration. More broadly, the British are less likely to stay inside an organisation that seems to be failing. If they vote to leave, the sense of crisis within the EU would then mount — raising the possibility of further defections.

难民和欧元危机会对英国2016年或2017年举行决定去留欧盟的全民公投产生影响。直到不久以前，民调看起来还对亲欧盟的阵营有利。但移民危机直接助推了希望英国脱离欧盟人士端出的最具说服力的议题——欧盟成员国身份意味着英国无法控制移民。更广义地说，英国人相对不太可能留在一个看似要失败的组织中。如果英国人投票脱离欧盟，那么欧盟内部的危机感将增大——更多国家可能会脱离欧盟。

A partial unravelling and marginalisation of the EU still looks more likely than a full-scale collapse. But even if an organisation called the European Union continues to exist — running buildings and paying salaries — it risks becoming increasingly irrelevant.

比起全面解体，欧盟更有可能出现部分解体和被边缘化。但即使这个被称为欧盟的组织继续存在（保持机构运转并支付薪水），其影响力可能日渐式微。

The best way to avoid these sorry fates would be for the bloc to demonstrate its relevance and effectiveness — by showing EU citizens that collective action and co-operation are the only ways of dealing with issues like the migrant crisis.

避免这种可悲命运的最好办法是，欧盟展现出自身的相关性和有效性——向欧盟公民表明，集体行动与合作是应对移民危机等问题的唯一方式。

The trouble is that the EU’s complex and unwieldy decision-making processes make it extremely hard to respond quickly and coherently to a crisis — as the migrant issue illustrates.

麻烦在于，欧盟复杂而难缠的决策过程意味着很难对危机做出快速而协调一致的回应——正如当前移民问题所显示的。