世界旧秩序分崩离析 The fading of an ageing world order

Russia’s deployment of forces to Syria is its most significant direct military intervention in the Middle East since the end of the second world war. It will further destabilise a region that is characterised by misrule, sectarianism, regional rivalries and four civil wars that have killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions.

进兵叙利亚是二战结束以来，俄罗斯在中东地区最重大的直接军事干预。此举将加剧该地区的动荡局势，这个地区的特点是暴政、教派主义、地区对抗以及四场导致数十万人丧命、数百万人流离失所的内战。

President Vladimir Putin’s gambit is only the latest indication that, after 70 years, the postwar international order is fraying. The US, the country around which the postwar order was constructed, still has a strong hand but it often plays that hand poorly.

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)的举动，只是战后国际秩序——历经70年后——分崩离析的最新迹象。居于战后秩序核心位置的美国依然实力强大，却经常不能很好地运用它的实力。

In the past 15 years, its global approach has fluctuated. President George W Bush pursued a muscular grand strategy aimed at imposing America’s will on the world. His invasion of Iraq is one of history’s finest own goals. By contrast, President Barack Obama has run a reality-based foreign policy. But he did not merely learn the lessons of the Bush presidency; he overlearnt them. His unwillingness to act forcefully at crucial moments has weakened the deterrent effect of US power.

在过去15年里，美国的国际政策变化不定。小布什总统(George W Bush)奉行一种秀肌肉的大战略，力图把美国的意志强加给全世界。他发动入侵伊拉克行动的目标，是历史上最冠冕堂皇的目标之一。不同于小布什，现总统巴拉克攠巴马(Barack Obama)实行立足现实的外交政策。但他不光是吸取了小布什政府的教训，还过度学习了。他在紧要关头不愿采取强有力的行动，弱化了美国力量的威慑效果。

The recent history of US policy — both its mis-steps and its changeability — raises questions about whether Washington will continue to act as the global hegemon. To those who relish the prospect of a more modest American presence in the world, I say: be careful what you wish for.

美国近年的政策——包括失误和多变——让人怀疑美国是否将继续扮演全球霸主。对于乐见美国在世界上充当更温和存在的人士，我要说一声：当心你许的愿成真！

Meanwhile, the rest of the west looks set to retire from the global stage — and not only because most western countries have ageing populations. For decades, Europe has spurned power politics in favour of forming an ever more perfect, peaceful union. The failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as the bloc’s economic debacles and political wobbles, have encouraged this parochialism. Now, when European leaders come upon an unpleasant scene, for example, a neighbour set upon by an aggressor — like the priest and the Levite with the Good Samaritan — most of them prefer to pass by on the other side.

另一方面，其他西方国家看来势将走下全球舞台，原因不仅在于多数西方国家都有人口老龄化问题。几十年来，欧洲已放弃了强权政治，倾向于缔造一个日趋完善、和平的联盟。在阿富汗和伊拉克的失败，以及欧盟的经济不景气和政治困顿，都助长了这种狭隘主义。如今欧洲领导人遇到不愉快的场景时，比如邻居受到了入侵者的攻击——就像祭司、利未人以及仁慈的撒马利亚人的故事那样——多数人宁愿绕道而行。

Even the UK has lowered its ambitions, stepping back from the foreign policy front line and cutting the budgets of its armed forces, the Foreign Office and the BBC World Service. The British will spend the next few years debating whether Scotland should leave the UK, and whether the UK should leave the EU. That will not leave much time to think about the rest of the world.

甚至连英国都雄心大减，从外交政策前线退了下来，削减了武装部队、外交部还有英国广播公司国际部(BBC World Service)的预算。在未来几年，英国人将会讨论苏格兰是否应当脱离英国，以及英国是否应当脱离欧盟。他们将没有太多时间思考世界其他地区的问题。

Even as western countries stand down, in each of the most significant global theatres — Europe, the Middle East and Asia — strong challengers to the liberal order are stepping up.

在全球各个至关重要的地区——欧洲、中东和亚洲——西方国家正在走下舞台，而自由秩序的强大挑战者开始走上舞台。

Russia seeks to establish a sphere of influence in its corner of Europe and regain its position as an indispensable global actor. Mr Putin’s tactics include subversion, propaganda and, disturbingly, the acquisition of territory by force. Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 breached the central tenet of the international state system. His Syrian operation is a stick in the eye of the Americans.

俄罗斯寻求在其欧洲领土周边建立势力范围，重获其作为不可或缺的世界角色的地位。普京的战术包括颠覆、宣传，以及武力夺取领土（引起了不安）。2014年，俄罗斯对克里米亚的非法吞并，违反了国际国家体系的核心原则。他在叙利亚的行动让美国人愤愤不已。

Meanwhile, Iran is taking advantage of turmoil in the Middle East to extend its power. This year’s international deal is probably the best option for curbing Tehran’s nuclear programme. But, if the country can make this much trouble while tied down by western sanctions, how will it behave when they fall away?

另外，伊朗正利用中东的动荡局势扩张自己的实力。今年达成的国际协议可能是遏制伊朗核计划的最好选择。但是，如果在西方制裁的羁绊下，伊朗都能制造如此大的麻烦，制裁取消之后，该国又将有何作为？

In the long term, Beijing’s challenge to the existing order is the most serious because wealth and power are shifting east, towards Asia. China’s successes in the past four decades have been dizzying. The country is building up economic weight befitting its tremendous size. However its foreign policy is highly uneven, switching between the constructive and the combative.

从长远来看，中国对现行秩序构成最严峻挑战，因为全球财富和权力正在东移，转向亚洲。中国在过去40年里取得了令人炫目的成功。中国正在打造跟自身规模相符的经济影响力。然而，中国的外交政策是极度不连贯的，在建设性和好斗性之间摇摆。

The differences between these three countries — Russia, Iran and China — are as great as their similarities. None of them hopes to displace the US as the world’s leading power. Their advantage lies in the fact that they can concentrate their forces regionally while Washington must disperse its forces globally.

俄罗斯、伊朗和中国这三个国家既极度相似，又存在天壤之别。它们都不希望取代美国成为全球主导国家。它们的优势是可以在地区集中发挥自己的力量，而美国必须把力量分派在全球范围。

The west’s drooping confidence, and the rise of great-power challengers, makes it harder for global institutions to address global problems. The UN has reached its biblical threescore years and 10, and it is showing its age.

西方信心的下降，加上大国挑战者的崛起，导致全球性机构更难解决全球性问题。联合国(UN)成立70年了，已是老态龙钟。

Take the most wicked problem in the UN’s care. The World Meteorological Organization reports that 2014 was the hottest year on record. This century, 14 of the 15 hottest years on record have been registered. We know the implications of global warming are likely to be severe. Yet successive UN conferences have failed to agree on binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions.

就以联合国面临的最危险问题为例。世界气象组织(World Meteorological Organization)报告称，2014年是记录在案的最热年份。有记录的15个最热年份中，14个出现在本世纪。我们知道，全球变暖的后果可能很严重。不过，多届联合国大会都未能就设定有约束力的温室气体排放量上限达成一致。

The story is similar when it comes to other international arrangements. For example, the refugee protection regime has been overwhelmed by the recent exodus from the Middle East. Clearly it no longer serves the interests of either states or refugees — but there is no prospect of it being reformed.

在其他国际安排方面，情况也类似。例如，难民保护机制已被近来的中东大逃亡压垮。很明显，该机制再也不能服务于国家或难民的利益，却看不到改革的希望。

International co-operation has never been more vital — or more rare. Dean Acheson called his memoir of his time as President Harry Truman’s secretary of state Present at the Creation. Acheson’s generation of US statesmen did indeed create the postwar world. But, 70 years later, their creation is in trouble. There is a growing sense that we are present at the destruction — the destruction of an order that has served the world well.

国际合作从未像现在这样重要，也从未像现在这样罕见。在美国总统哈里尠腧门(Harry Truman)任期内担任国务卿的迪安縠奇逊(Dean Acheson)写过一本有关那个时代的回忆录——《参与创造世界》(Present at the Creation)。那个时代的美国政治家的确创造了战后世界。但是，70年过后，他们创造的秩序陷入了困境。人们越来越有一种感觉，我们正在“参与毁灭”(present at the destruction)——毁掉一个曾对世界有益的秩序。