打击ISIS不能孤立俄罗斯 Opponents of Isis must influence not isolate Russia

A Russian military aircraft is shot down by a missile fired from a Turkish aircraft. Representatives of Nato members gather for an “extraordinary meeting” to discuss the incident. It feels like the 1950s, cold war and all — but appearances are deceiving.

一架俄罗斯战机被土耳其战机发射的导弹击落。北约(Nato)成员国代表召开“特别会议”讨论这起事件。这让人感觉像是上世纪50年代、冷战之类——但表象是误导人的。

This is not yet a crisis, and if what took place is allowed to fester — or worse yet escalate, — Isis will be the big winner. Turkey is unlikely to fall out with Russia, on which it depends for gas. But this distraction might sidetrack the effort to build a better international response to Isis in the wake of the Paris attacks.

这件事还未演化成一场危机，但如果让已经发生的情况继续恶化甚至升级，那么“伊斯兰国”(ISIS)将成为大赢家。依靠俄罗斯提供天然气的土耳其不太可能与之闹僵。但这件分散注意力的事可能会使巴黎恐袭发生后构建打击ISIS更强有力国际阵线的努力偏离轨道。

Today’s Russia is half the size of the Soviet Union. It has a shrinking economy dependent on oil exports, and is motivated not by an ideology with global pretensions but by nationalism fused with the persona of President Vladimir Putin. Nothing links its aggression in Crimea and eastern Ukraine with what is happening in the Middle East other than Mr Putin’s search for a bigger role for his country, which plays well at home. Perspective is called for. Russia is not a superpower. The threat it poses at times to western interests should be dealt with but not exaggerated.

如今的俄罗斯只有苏联版图的一半大小。依赖石油出口的该国经济正在萎缩，其外交政策的驱动力不再来自具有全球野心的意识形态，而是来自民族主义与总统弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)的形象的融合。俄罗斯对克里米亚及乌克兰东部的入侵行为与中东正在发生的事情并无关联，但贯穿这一切的主线是普京为他的国家寻觅更大角色，这在国内很好使。我们需要客观。俄罗斯不再是超级大国。它对西方利益不时构成的威胁应当得到应对，但不应被夸大。

Nor is Turkey the stalwart Nato partner it once was. Today’s Turkey is more an ally in name than in fact. It is hard to escape the irony that Turkey’s president shares many of the same illiberal tendencies as his Russian counterpart. More important, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey does not share US and western objectives in the Middle East. Yes, Turkey has allowed US aircraft to use its air base at Incirlik to attack Isis, but taking on Isis is hardly its priority. Its government is opposed to Kurdish nationalism and is doing what it can to weaken the Kurds — the closest the US and its allies have to a military partner on the ground in Iraq and Syria against Isis. Turkey has done little to stanch the flow of foreign recruits to Isis, who cross its territory en route to Syria.

土耳其也不再是以前那个坚定的北约伙伴了。如今的土耳其在更大程度上是名义上的盟国。难以回避的讽刺意味在于，土耳其总统与普京有很多共同的反自由主义倾向。更重要的是，雷杰普吠伊普埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)领导下的土耳其并不认可美国及西方在中东的目标。没错，土耳其允许美国飞机使用位于因切利克(Incirlik)的空军基地打击ISIS，但对抗ISIS并非安卡拉的政策重点。土耳其政府反对库尔德民族主义，正在尽一切可能削弱库尔德人，而后者是美国及其盟友在伊拉克和叙利亚打击ISIS的作战中最近似于第一线军事伙伴的力量。土耳其并未采取措施阻止ISIS招募的外国新兵经由该国前往叙利亚。

So what should the US and European Nato members do? It would help not to overreact to what has taken place or to treat Russia as an implacable foe. There is much about Russian policy in Syria that deserves criticism, from its apparently uncritical support of President Bashar al-Assad to attacks on regime opponents other than Isis. But Russian efforts to shore up the regime are not entirely counterproductive. It is not in the west’s interest to see the regime ousted before a viable alternative is ready to step in. Isis, which so much on perceptions of its momentum and inevitability, is not in a position to gain control over Damascus and declare a caliphate in reality as well as name.

那么美国和欧洲的北约成员国该做些什么呢？有益的做法是避免对已经发生的事反应过度，也不要将俄罗斯当成不共戴天的敌人。俄罗斯对叙利亚的许多政策都值得批评，包括它对叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)显然不加批判地支持，以及打击阿萨德政权的反对者而不是ISIS。但俄罗斯努力支撑阿萨德政权并不是完全帮倒忙。在一个可行的替代政权准备好执政之前就推翻阿萨德政权，并不符合西方的利益。ISIS在很大程度上依赖于人们对其气势和不可阻挡的观感，它还没有能力掌控大马士革，它自封的“哈里发”只是名义上的，而不是现实的。

There is also the prospect that Russian policy might evolve. Mr Putin and Russia paid a price for supporting Mr Assad when an Isis bomb brought down a Russian civilian airliner over Egypt. It is probably only a matter of time before something akin to what happened in Paris happens in Moscow. This would be intolerable for Mr Putin, who might want to redirect his country’s policy.

而且俄罗斯的政策还有演变的可能。当ISIS的炸弹在埃及上空导致俄罗斯一架民航客机坠毁时，普京和俄罗斯为支持阿萨德付出了代价。莫斯科遭遇类似于巴黎的恐怖袭击可能只是时间问题。这对普京将是无法忍受的，他有可能会改变国家政策方向。

The conclusion is that the US, Europe and the Arab countries opposing Isis should use this incident as an opportunity to further influence what Russia does, not to isolate or humiliate it. Two issues should take precedence. First, there should be intensified talks with Russia on co-ordinating what various militaries are doing. The focus must be on weakening Isis. If this means making Russia a de facto member of the coalition of the willing that French President Hollande is assembling, so be it. It is not necessary to agree on everything in order to agree on some things.

这一切的结论是，美国、欧洲和反对ISIS的阿拉伯国家应利用此次事件作为契机，进一步影响俄罗斯的政策，而不是孤立或羞辱它。有两个问题应该优先考虑。首先，应该与俄罗斯加强商谈，协调各国军队的行动。重点必须是削弱ISIS。如果这意味着俄罗斯成为法国总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德( Hollande)正在打造的自愿联盟的一员，那也没什么不好。为了在某些事情上达成一致，没必要同意一切。

Second, diplomacy should focus on a plan for a new government in Damascus. It is possible to pursue an anti-Isis strategy with Mr Assad in power, but his being there is a major liability, one that precludes military co-operation with the government and helps Isis to recruit. A diplomatic effort with Russia in a central role would be worth supporting if it led to Mr Assad taking up residence in a dacha outside Moscow.

其次，外交活动应当聚焦于在大马士革建立一个新政府的计划。在阿萨德继续掌权的情况下推行一项打击ISIS的战略是可行的，但他在台上是一个很大的不利因素，使西方不可能与叙利亚政府进行军事合作，还帮助ISIS招募新兵。如果俄罗斯能让阿萨德自愿住到莫斯科郊外的别墅里，那么让俄罗斯扮演中心角色的外交努力就是值得支持的。