特朗普与勒庞联手发动“大西洋反革命”?

France and the US both regard themselves as exceptional nations. But their history has often followed a similar pattern. The American revolution of 1775-83 was swiftly followed by the French revolution of 1789 — leading some historians to talk of the late 18th century as the period of the “Atlantic revolutions”.

法国和美国都自视为例外国家。但他们的历史经常出现相似的一幕。继1775-83年美国革命后，法国很快就爆发了1789年大革命，以致一些历史学家将18世纪晚期称为“大西洋革命”时期。

Will future historians one day be writing about the “Atlantic counter-revolutions” of the early 21st century? It could happen if the election of Donald Trump as president of the US last November is followed by the election of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front, as president of France this May.

未来的历史学家某一天会撰写关于21世纪初“大西洋反革命”的历史吗？这有可能，如果继唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)去年11月当选美国总统之后，法国极右翼国民阵线(National Front)领导人马琳?勒庞(Marine Le Pen)今年5月赢得法国总统大选的话。

The Trump and Le Pen movements share many ideas — hostility to Islam, nationalism, populism, protectionism, support for Brexit, sympathy for Russia and hatred of the mainstream media. Both leaders want to turn the clock back to a more conservative era, before globalisation and multiculturalism, by staging a counter-revolution against the hated “liberal establishment”.

特朗普与勒庞的政治运动拥有许多共同理念——敌视伊斯兰教；信奉民族主义、民粹主义、保护主义；支持英国退欧；同情俄罗斯；憎恶主流媒体。两位领导人都希望通过对令人厌恶的“自由建制派”发动一场反革命，将本国带回全球化和多元文化主义之前的那个更为保守的时代。

Ms Le Pen hailed Mr Trump’s victory as the dawn of a new age. And some of Mr Trump’s close advisers, such as Stephen Bannon, have cultivated close links with the European far right.

勒庞盛赞特朗普胜选为一个新时代的开始。特朗普身边一些关系密切的顾问——如斯蒂芬?班农(Stephen Bannon)——已与欧洲极右势力建立了紧密联系。

For political reasons, Ms Le Pen has to handle the Trump connection with care. Opinion polls show that the new US president is unpopular with French voters, even those on the far right. But, on balance, the Trump victory is a plus for Ms Le Pen. It has helped to create a sense of momentum behind nationalist, anti-globalist forces in Europe. And in the aftermath of Mr Trump’s victory and Brexit, French voters are less likely to fear that a Le Pen victory will stigmatise or isolate France.

出于政治原因，勒庞不得不谨慎处理与特朗普的关系。民调显示，这位美国新总统并不受法国选民欢迎，即便是那些极右翼选民。但总的来说，特朗普胜选对勒庞而言是件好事，有助于在欧洲的民族主义、反全球化势力背后产生一种动力感。英国公投决定退欧、特朗普胜选之后，法国选民没那么担忧勒庞胜选会让法国蒙羞或被孤立了。

The economic and social circumstances in France are, if anything, more favourable for Ms Le Pen than the situation that faced Mr Trump before the election in November. The recent death toll from jihadist terrorism in France is much heavier than in the US, following three horrific attacks in 18 months, two in Paris and one in Nice.

如果有什么不同的话，相较于特朗普在去年11月大选前面对的形势，法国的经济和社会环境对勒庞更为有利。圣战恐怖主义近期在法国造成的死亡人数比美国要严重得多——过去18个月法国遭受了3次可怕的袭击，两次发生在巴黎，一次发生在尼斯。

Tensions between the Muslim minority and the wider society are much more intense in France than in the US. Unemployment is also higher in France than in America and economic growth is slower. France, unlike the US, is chafing under budgetary constraints imposed by the EU — giving extra force to anxiety about loss of sovereignty.

法国穆斯林少数族群与整个社会之间的关系比美国要紧张得多。法国的失业率也比美国高，经济增速比美国慢。与美国不同，法国还要受制于欧盟的预算限制，使民众更有理由担忧主权丧失。

Even better for Ms Le Pen, the French political elite seems to be going out of its way to support her charge that they are corrupt and out-of-touch. Fran?ois Fillon, the candidate of the centre-right, is now the subject of a formal investigation after employing his wife and two of his children with public funds. The great hope of the pro-European centre is Emmanuel Macron, a youthful and charismatic independent candidate. But, as a former banker educated at the Ecole Nationale d’Administration, France’s most elite institution, and passionately supported in Brussels, Mr Macron also epitomises an unpopular establishment. Ms Le Pen is a skilled television performer who will relish the televised debates that tend to be defining moments in the French presidential elections.

对勒庞更有利的是，法国的政治精英似乎正在特意支持她对他们腐败和脱离群众的指控。法国中右翼阵营候选人弗朗索瓦?菲永(Fran?ois Fillon)，如今正因妻子和两名子女“吃空饷”的丑闻接受正式调查。年轻、有魅力的独立候选人埃曼纽尔?马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)是亲欧洲的中间阵营的最大希望。但作为一名毕业于法国顶级精英学校国家行政学院(Ecole Nationale d'Administration)的前银行家，而且得到布鲁塞尔的热情支持，马克龙同样是不受欢迎的建制派的代表。勒庞是一名娴熟的电视表演者，她将很享受电视辩论，而电视辩论往往会成为法国总统选举的决定性时刻。

The one clear difference between the Trump and Le Pen movements, that could count against the French far right, is novelty. Mr Trump emerged from nowhere (politically speaking) to take over the Republican party and then the US presidency. By contrast, the National Front has been around in French politics for decades, as has the Le Pen dynasty.

特朗普与勒庞政治运动之间的一个明显不同在于新奇性，这一点可能不利于法国极右翼。特朗普是从白手起家（从政治来说）到接管共和党，继而成为美国总统。相比之下，国民阵线已在法国政坛纵横几十年，“勒庞王朝”也是如此。

Historically, there has been a clear ceiling to support for the far right in France — well below the 50 per cent of votes needed to grasp the presidency. Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father, made it to the second round of the French presidential election in 2002, but lost heavily with just under 18 per cent support against Jacques Chirac, the incumbent. The FN did relatively well in the 2015 regional elections, but hit a ceiling of 27 per cent support in the second round of voting.

从历史上看，极右翼在法国的支持率一直都有一个清晰的上限——远低于赢得总统宝座所需的50%选票。2002年，马琳的父亲让-玛丽?勒庞(Jean-Marie Le Pen)曾成功进入第二轮法国总统选举，但在与时任总统雅克?希拉克(Jacques Chirac)的对决中惨败，得票率不足18%。在2015年的地区选举中，国民阵线表现相对较好，但在第二轮投票中止步于27%的支持上限。

Under ordinary circumstances, the structure of the presidential election would ensure that this traditional limit to FN support would be decisive. In round one, there are many candidates. The split in votes is likely to mean that Ms Le Pen comes out on top, with a score of over 25 per cent. But, in round two, when she would face a single candidate, the natural majority against the far right should come into play.

一般情况下，法国总统选举的规程可以确保，国民阵线支持率的这一传统上限将起决定性作用。第一轮角逐中有很多候选人。投票的分散很可能意味着勒庞将以头名胜出，得票率超过25%。但到了第二轮，当她面对一位对手时，反对极右翼的自然多数就会开始起作用。

Until recently, this idea of a natural ceiling to the far right’s support brought considerable comfort to the French political mainstream. But a series of recent opinion polls have shown Ms Le Pen above 40 per cent support in the second round of voting. One poll last week showed her at 45 per cent against Mr Fillon; while two recent polls have showed her at 42 per cent against Mr Macron. That is touching distance, with more than two months of campaigning to go. And Ms Le Pen might be even better placed if she faces a far-left candidate in the second round, as might happen if the left unites its forces.

直到不久前，这种关于极右翼支持率有天然上限的观点一直给法国政治主流带来莫大的安慰。但最近一系列民调显示，勒庞可能在第二轮投票中拿下超过40%的得票率。上周公布的一项民调显示，她与菲永对决的得票率为45%；而最近的两项民调显示，她与马克龙对决的得票率为42%。这样的支持率差距实在太小，何况还有两个多月的竞选时间。如果第二轮角逐中面对一名极左候选人（如果左翼联合起来可能出现这种局面），勒庞甚至可能获得更大的优势。

Certainly, there is now a palpable nervousness among the French elite. In Paris last week, I found myself having the “which country should I emigrate to?” conversation with a couple of old friends for whom the prospect of a Le Pen victory suddenly seemed very real. With Mr Trump in power in the US and Britain leaving the EU, the emigration options seem to be narrowing.

毫无疑问，如今法国精英明显倍感紧张。上周，我在巴黎与两位老朋友谈到了“应该移民到哪个国家？”的话题，他们都感觉勒庞胜选的前景突然似乎变得无比真实。在特朗普掌权美国、英国正在脱离欧盟的背景下，移民的选择似乎越来越少。